Preliminary Holiday Bowl projections

Looks like Cal is slightly favored.

USA Today: “California”

The Holiday Bowl is almost always a good show, and this should be no different. Each team averages more than 400 yards of offense (two of 19 teams nationally to do so), and there will be plenty of chances for highlights from Cal RB Marshawn Lynch, Cal WR DeSean Jackson, Texas A&M QB Stephen McGee, Texas A&M RB Jorvorskie Lane … and more.

ESPN: “Bowl Predictions: Can You Beat The Schwab?”

One of the most interesting bowl games and both closed 1-2 in final three games. Slight edge to Jeff Tedford’s team. Schwab’s Pick: 27-20, Cal.

FOX Sports: “Ranking the bowl games”

10. The Pac-10 is overdue for a good Holiday Bowl performance having lost four of the last five, while Cal will try to erase memories of the last time it played in San Diego losing to Texas Tech 45-31 in 2004. The Golden Bears get a ton of hype with not many big wins to back it up, while Texas A&M is gunning for its first 10-win season since 1998 and prove that the Dennis Franchione era is truly headed in the right direction.

Stars of the show:
1. Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
2. DeSean Jackson, WR, California
3. Jorvorskie Lane, RB, Texas A&M

Initial prediction: California 34 … Texas A&M 31

Big Game streak continues, Cal co-champion of Pac-10

Cal’s performance in the Big Game resulted in an outcome nowhere near the match-up’s spread. However, the Bears continued the Big Game winning streak under Coach Jeff Tedford, extending it to 5 games. I’ll take a 23-17 win, but I hope the team gets things going for the Holiday Bowl.

In other news, UCLA upset USC 13-9, making USC and Cal tied for first place in the Pac-10. USC gets the Rose Bowl, but we both get the title. Thus, Cal is a 2006 Co-Champion of the Pac-10! This development is bittersweet, though: without a loss to Arizona, Cal would surely be on its way to the Rose Bowl.

Today, Stanford

The Big Game will be a showcase of Cal’s great talent this season, but also an opportunity to appreciate many of the seniors on the squad. If the game follows the blowout trend of the past 4 years, we will likely be able to see many seniors on the depth chart come out to play by the second half of the game.

In addition, this may very well be Marshawn Lynch‘s last home game as a Bear. We would love to see him return and possibly capture the Rose Bowl next year, but with first-round NFL draft projections and a limited shelf life of physical running backs, it may make sense for Lynch to go out and provide for his family.

Stanford football has been so pitiful that I have almost come to feel bad for them. However, one must remember the 7 straight years of defeat before the arrival of Coach Jeff Tedford, their student section chants of “Cal’s Our B****”, and other nasty memories of this bitter rivalry.

To close up, here is a recent article from the Stanford Review, thanks to RBBID:

Berkeley coach Jeff Tedford is consistently producing top-25 football teams with Heisman candidates. We find ourselves in ESPN’s Bottom 10 rankings. These two facts mean that we won’t be beating Cal in football for the foreseeable future, which begs the question: should we continue to care about Cal? They have a much larger student body and lower academic standards for athletes. One Cal newspaper even declared that we were unfit to be rivals.

We’re happy to take our rivalry elsewhere. Cal clearly lucked-out having us a rival; if they would prefer UC Davis, well, they can have them. We always knew that we could do better than Cal.

The task now is to find a new rival, one much more like our fine school (meaning a private school), a school that we can fairly compete against, and beat on occasion, and sometimes badly. There are a few options. We could adopt Duke as a rival; their football team is as hapless as ours. Northwestern’s is almost as bad.

Pathetic. Mind-bogglingly pompous. No mercy today, Tedford.

Holiday Bowl opponent: Texas A&M

It’s official: Cal will face Texas A&M in the Holiday Bowl.

Due to some apparent bowl politics, the Bears will end up facing the #4 team in the Big 12 conference (instead of the #3 as intended). However, the Aggies are better than their record may appear: they are coming off a win over defending national champion Texas and are a nationally ranked team.

Now that the bowl situation is settled… time to set our sights back on beating the 29 point spread on Stanford and making some Big Game records.

Cal to play in the Holiday Bowl

Earlier today, Cal accepted an invitation to play in the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl. This is the team’s fourth straight bowl game appearance, a feat never before accomplished in Cal’s history. The Holiday Bowl kicks off on Thursday, December 28th at 5pm in Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. While it is yet to be known who the Bears will face, the opposing team will be from the Big 12 conference, most likely No. 22 Texas A&M.

Wilted dreams, rankings and the Holiday Bowl

Saturday was beyond disappointing for Cal fans, with hopes for the Rose Bowl squashed in the Coliseum during the fourth quarter.

Clearly I was hit hard by the loss, so I took a short break to cool off. However, never fear… updates will continue as usual now.

Cal has dropped to #22 in the AP/Coaches poll, #23 in Harris, and #19 in the BCS standings. This effectively removes Cal from BCS contention, as the team must be ranked in the top #14 of the standings to be eligible for an at-large bid in the Rose Bowl, given that USC makes it to the national title game.

Is there still hope for the Bears backing into the Rose Bowl? Not really. A win over Stanford will not impress anyone, and 5 teams dropping below Cal in the rankings is very unlikely. So, it looks like we’re almost definitely headed to the Holiday Bowl. Not a bad venue at all, but still disappointing given the hopes for the season.

Decision weekend

No updates this weekend. I’m in Southern California awaiting the Bears’ game of the season. I’m going to avoid making a score prediction; my prediction is simply that Cal clinches the Rose Bowl. Wait and see…

Go Bears.

Buzz for the showdown at USC

vs.

The Bears aren’t getting much faith in the media to upset USC on Saturday. Most pundits point to Cal’s loss to Arizona and USC’s “re-emergence” with wins over Stanford and Oregon since a loss to Oregon State. However, Cal should recover from the disaster in Tucson and come back with a big game against the Trojans. The game is very well-matched and will come out close.

While the game has been eclipsed by the Ohio State/Michigan #1/#2 rivalry game, the Cal/USC match-up will probably benefit from it; both are receiving national coverage on ABC (12:30, 5:00). Thus, the OSU/MI viewers will watch the ESPN personalities hype up and preview Cal/USC and many are likely to stay tuned in to watch the Pac-10 showdown afterwards. With the nation watching, this is Cal’s opportunity to dethrone USC and clinch the Rose Bowl.

Associated Press: Preview

After the fourth-ranked Trojans (8-1, 6-1) unexpectedly climbed back into the national championship race, they face the No. 17 Golden Bears (8-2, 6-1) on Saturday night in a matchup that will decide the Pac-10’s BCS bid.

The winner of the matchup at the Los Angeles Coliseum will own the tiebreaker advantage in the conference. A victory would keep USC in position to possibly play for the national title for the fourth straight season.

California, meanwhile, can clinch its first Rose Bowl berth since the 1958 season.

USA Today:

Two weeks ago it looked like the Golden Bears were the favorites to win the Pac-10. After their loss to Arizona and two impressive wins by the Trojans, the picture has a new look. The loss to Oregon State may just be the kick USC needed to jump start its championship run. Southern California 28, California 20.

ESPN’s Ivan Maisel: “3 Games Worth TiVo-ing”

It’s late November, and USC is one victory away from clinching the Pac-10 championship. Yes, Cal still goes to the Rose Bowl if it wins, but it’s hard to leap over the hurdle when you stumble on the previous step.

California will win if it finds a way to slow down the USC offense. Cal also has picked off 20 passes. That’s important because USC sophomore John David Booty still can make the occasional boneheaded throw. The Bears have a balanced offense and a decided edge in special teams, especially with DeSean Jackson, the nation’s leader in punt returns ( 20.7-yard average, four touchdowns).

ESPN: “Pac-10 notebook”

California needs to get over its loss at Arizona, which included blowing a 17-3 halftime lead, as quickly as possible considering that the program’s first Rose Bowl since the 1958 season is on the line at USC. “At the beginning, there was a lot of disappointment about not taking care of business,” coach Jeff Tedford said. “Now it’s full steam ahead with just thinking about playing USC with a chance to compete for a conference championship.”

Sports Network: “Cal seeks first Rose Bowl berth since 1958”

A week ago it looked like California was going to steamroll the Trojans, but this team showed a weakness in the desert and perhaps isn’t ready to unseat the old guard in the Pac-10. That being said, this will probably be one of the better games of the year, one that could see several lead changes along the way. In the end however, USC knows how to win big games, especially on its own lawn. Sports Network Predicted Outcome: USC 33, California 27

ESPN’s Jim Donnan: “What to Watch in Week 12”

The Trojans looked like a well-oiled machine against Oregon in Week 11… The Trojans’ defense is creating more big plays and the coaches look more comfortable applying defensive pressure. The much-maligned secondary is also starting to look better. USC received a loud wake-up call against Oregon State, and momentum is definitely in the Trojans’ corner. The one team that has consistently given them fits, however, is Cal. If Cal can get Jackson the ball early and often, the Trojans could be in trouble.

Scouts, Inc: “California vs. USC edge”

Pac-10 fans have been waiting for this matchup all year, but don’t expect the score to be as close as some might think or hope. Although both teams are 6-1 in the conference, the Trojans seem to be playing their best football of the season and the Bears lost to a mediocre Arizona team last week. In addition, this game is at the Coliseum and USC is back in the national championship race, so the environment will be hostile.

Lynch will break some electrifying runs, but the Trojans’ talented front seven will prevent him from controlling the tempo of the game and it will force Longshore to make plays. USC will confuse Longshore with a number of different looks and pressure him into making some poor decisions and/or errant throws. Offensively, the Trojans place a high premium on balance. They will run the ball despite the many injuries in the backfield and their backs will be productive enough to keep the Bears honest. In addition, Booty will find his receivers downfield for some big plays and force Cal to back their safeties up, effectively opening up the run.

Prediction: Trojans 35, Golden Bears 21

Blog rounds on the Arizona outcome

This week’s blog rounds show much weeping and gnashing of teeth from the Cal faithful over the painful loss, but hope at the end of the tunnel with eyes fixed on USC and Rose Bowl hopes. Here is a bite out of the Cal blogs:

BearTalk Weblog: “bad day in the desert”

It also was alarming on Saturday that Arizona controlled the Bears’ offensive line in terms of the running. If that was because the Wildcats overmatched them with bodies up front, then the Cal coaching staff should have gone elsewhere. If the Bears simply couldn’t match Arizona’s physical play, then they could be in trouble on Saturday.

The loss at Arizona was deflating for everyone, just when it appeared the Bears would be ranked fourth or fifth in the nation going into the game. But the stakes remain the same. A win on Saturday will send Cal alums into a wild dance never seen on Figuroa.

Rose Bowl Before I Die: “Sadness, Reflection, Recognition”

Cal lost to an inspired Arizona team. Longshore played his worst game as a Bear. Worse than the Tennessee game which featured a lot of drop balls by the receivers. …

It looked like Cal was controlling the game leading up to halftime. DeSean Jackson had an amazing game. Two touchdown and almost another give or take 2 inches. Marshawn had a solid game but Cal gave up on the run too quickly toward the end of the game. …

Pipe dreams of a national championship were always nice. An undefeated Pac 10 record would have been great. A final ranking in the top 5 would have been validation. But, let’s keep all this in perspective. Cal is still in control of its destiny for the Rose Bowl.

Sturdy Golden Blog: “On the Couch (Arizona 24, Cal 20)”

Full credit for Jackson for almost staying in bounds, but he absolutely stepped out. And full credit for the fight to the finish. Look, the Rose Bowl is the goal. Cal-USC is still for all the marbles. But still, how disappointing for Cal’s national image and ranking.

TedfordIsGod: “The Worst Meaningless Loss Ever”

Wild result, wild game … now let us never speak of it again.

USC, Saturday, Pac-10 title on the line.

Nothing has changed. You better believe the Bears have something to prove.

TedfordIsGod: “Pac-10’s Own Personal Upset Saturday”

Now, obviously, this loss, while embarrassing and shameful, is by no means a big deal. Next week’s game is still basically a playoff for the Rose Bowl. (Please, spare me the what-if talk about the Trojans beating Cal, winning out, ending up in the national championship game, leaving the Pac-10’s Rose Bowl spot open. There is no way — no way! — the Rose Bowl would take a three-loss team, even in the impossible event that the Bears would be BCS-eligible in this scenario.) But the fact remains that Cal has a tendency to falter when the expectations are high.

The good news, though, is that with the upset the Bears will probably be heavy underdogs Saturday. Sadly, they seem to be just more comfortable that way.

And, here are some thoughts from non-Cal bloggers. Clearly, the loss is looking bad for Cal’s reputation. However, it is duly noted that this loss was somewhat of an aberration, due more to a lack of a focus than a lack of talent with the USC showdown looming.

Pac-10 Apostle: “The Weekly Rehash (Reversal of the Reversal Edition)”

With three picks, Longshore gave the game to Arizona, including one that was returned for a score by Antoine Cason. That gave the Wildcats their first lead and after Longshore’s third and final pick with 1:32 left, Arizona claimed victory. The Arizona offense was pretty blah, getting outgained by about 100 yards and averaging less than 4 yards a play. But they didn’t turn the ball over once, so the +3 differential was what decided the game. The Bears just kissed their national championship status goodbye.

Every Day Should Be Saturday: “WEEKEND REVIEW, PART ONE: TWO LOSSES IS THE NEW HOTNESS”

USC’s looking just fine at the moment, and an upcoming matchup with Notre Dame shouldn’t frighten anyone since the Irish secondary is still playing fire drill an almost every single snap, something the mindmelded duo of Sarkisian and Kiffin may have noticed when watching film. They should fear Cal, though, since Cal futzed around, ate some Skittles, and paused thoughtfully to look at the sunset while Arizona decided to win a game against them. Pissed and focused is totally the way to go through life, son, and with USC on the horizon that is precisely what they’ll be.

Sunday Morning Quarterback: “The Streets Run Red With Sunday Morning Quarterback”

It was also a day that tuned SMQ’s more sympathetic tendencies to the cruelly incremental nature of a game, indeed, of inches, and also of split seconds: Florida won by the tips of Jarvis Moss’ fingers, as related above, but also by the unusually speedy delay of game flag that took a 55-yard Ryan Succop field goal off the board earlier in the game; California, meanwhile, apparently made its big play to win on a sideline route and make-em-miss upfield burst by DeSean Jackson with two minutes left at Arizona, and had its victory drive upended by, literally, the length of Jackson’s big toe. Yet Florida will rise, alive, while Cal falls into the murky “BCS hopeful” mire. Always remember such razor-thin margins when attempting to estimate “how good” any given team deserves to be measured.

Media rounds on the Arizona outcome

Associated Press: “Arizona stuns Cal at home, ruining Bears’ BCS title dreams”

California center Alex Mack was philosophical about the eighth-ranked Golden Bears’ 24-20 loss to Arizona Saturday afternoon.

“It’s not over,” he said. “It just hurts.”

The loss knocked the Golden Bears (8-2, 6-1 Pac-10) out of the national title hunt. But Cal can still clinch its first Rose Bowl berth since the 1958 season with a victory at No. 7 Southern California next week.

Scout.com: “Zona Sun Sets On Cal’s Undefeated P10 Season”

Arizona coach Bob Stoops was counting his blessings, commenting on his reaction after the touchdown was called back. “The football gods are smiling on us,” said Stoops after the game. The Bears continued their drive with a 1st down pass to receiver Robert Hawkins, bringing the ball to the Arizona 30 yard line. However, on third down, quarterback Longshore suffered his career-worst third interception with on the night with a pick by Ronnie Palmer at the Arizona 20 with 1:42 left and the Bears fate was sealed, as Arizona ran out the clock with Cal out of timeouts, much to the jubilance of the Wildcats’ shocked fans.

ESPN: “Top 25 Overview”

It was over when… Arizona’s Ronnie Palmer picked off a deflected Nate Longshore pass with 1:32 left in the game.
Gameball goes to… Antoine Cason. The Arizona cornerback stepped in front of a Longshore pass and returned it 39 yards for the game-winning touchdown.
Stat of the game…4 and 5. Cal’s DeSean Jackson returned a punt for a touchdown for the fourth time this season, fifth of his career. Both are Pac-10 records.

Daily Cal: “What Could Have Been / The Wildcats Secure Upset As Cal Falters In the Desert”

After giving up 21 straight points, the No. 8 Cal football team was on the verge of a game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter.

But like many other crucial moments in the Bears’ crushing 24-20 loss Saturday to Arizona in Tucson, Ariz., this one did not go Cal’s way.

SF Chronicle: “Reversals of fortune / Cal upset in Tucson: Bears squander halftime lead”

On top of having flu-like symptoms, Cal receiver DeSean Jackson started feeling even worse as he suited up before Saturday’s game.

“It was kind of a weird feeling, putting on those white uniforms for the first time since we lost in Tennessee,” he said. “It gave me some real bad feelings.”

Those feelings became a nightmarish reality during the game as very little went right for the Bears, and they lost for the first time in Pac-10 play, 24-20 to Arizona in front of 55,509 homecoming fans at Arizona Stadium.

Contra Costa Times: “No undefeated Pac-10 season for Cal”

Thirty minutes after Cal’s 24-20 loss at Arizona on Saturday, Cal linebacker Worrell Williams stood outside a subdued locker room and summed up his team’s situation perfectly.

“Great teams get through that,” Williams said.

For the second time this season, No. 8 Cal had the chance to stamp itself as a great team. The first opportunity ended with a loss at Tennessee in the opener. On Saturday, the Bears (8-2 overall, 6-1 Pac-10) failed to complete a final drive — after a series of bizarre events left them trailing — that would have kept them undefeated in conference play. Cal’s final shot at greatness comes next Saturday, when the Bears travel to USC for a game that might ultimately decide the Pac-10 championship.

“We still are in the hunt to be No. 1 in the Pac-10,” Williams said. “If we win against USC, we will be sitting in the driver’s seat. We control our own destiny.”

SF Chronicle: “The ABCs of BCS / Cal finds self-fault in loss to Arizona; focus turns to USC”

Coach Jeff Tedford wanted to shoulder the blame, receiver Lavelle Hawkins said it was his fault and defensive tackle Brandon Mebane tried to take the responsibility. It went on and on from coaches to players and back to coaches, but each was ready to carry the weight of the loss.

“It’s definitely frustrating, but we’re all a team,” Mebane said. “We know we’ll bounce back.”

Whittier Daily News: “Cal’s defeat excites USC”

When USC defeated Oregon late Saturday night, it was the Trojans’ second celebration of the day. The first one occurred in the afternoon at the team’s hotel when Arizona upset California.

“Everyone on our floor was out in the hallway screaming,” offensive tackle Kyle Williams said. “We had a little jumping around party when Cal lost,” linebacker Oscar Lua added.

…

Cal’s loss does mean one thing: USC can clinch a Rose Bowl appearance and Pacific-10 Conference title by defeating the Golden Bears on Saturday at the Coliseum.