Wilted dreams, rankings and the Holiday Bowl

Saturday was beyond disappointing for Cal fans, with hopes for the Rose Bowl squashed in the Coliseum during the fourth quarter.

Clearly I was hit hard by the loss, so I took a short break to cool off. However, never fear… updates will continue as usual now.

Cal has dropped to #22 in the AP/Coaches poll, #23 in Harris, and #19 in the BCS standings. This effectively removes Cal from BCS contention, as the team must be ranked in the top #14 of the standings to be eligible for an at-large bid in the Rose Bowl, given that USC makes it to the national title game.

Is there still hope for the Bears backing into the Rose Bowl? Not really. A win over Stanford will not impress anyone, and 5 teams dropping below Cal in the rankings is very unlikely. So, it looks like we’re almost definitely headed to the Holiday Bowl. Not a bad venue at all, but still disappointing given the hopes for the season.

Cal drops to #17-AP, #17-Coaches/Harris, #15-BCS

With Saturday’s loss at Arizona, Cal has dropped significantly in the polls. All rankings dropped the Bears at least 7 spots. The AP and the Coaches/Harris polls place Cal at #17 (from #8 and #9, respectively). Meanwhile, the BCS computer rankings now have Cal at #12 (from #4 last week), and combined with the lower human polls Cal is now #15 in the BCS standings.

These rankings are insignificant to Cal’s bowl destiny, as we described on Saturday. The Bears have two possibilities: beat USC and see the Rose Bowl, or lose to USC and end up in the Holiday Bowl. Furthermore, as Ken C correctly pointed out over at Bear Territory, this is not dependent on a Big Game win over Stanford.

Hughes semifinalist for Jim Thorpe Award; DeCoud fine; other news

Daymeion Hughes has been named as one of the 11 players as semifinalists for the Jim Thorpe Award, an award given annually to the best defensive back in the nation. Last year’s winner was Michael Huff of Texas, who was drafted in the Oakland Raiders’ first draft pick. The other semifinalists include Michigan’s Leon Hall, LSU’s LaRon Landry, Fresno State’s Marcus McCauley, Florida’s Reggie Nelson, Pittsburgh’s Darrelle Revis, Texas’ Aaron Ross, Ohio State’s Antonio Smith, Utah’s Eric Weddle, Notre Dame’s Tom Zbikowski, and Arizona’s Antoine Cason. With the upcoming Cal-Arizona game, the Tucson Citizen ran a feature on Hughes and Cason.

Some additional articles to read:

Rose Bowl hopes depend on Cal’s defense Contra Costa Times:

However, as frustrating as it is to see Cal’s defense playing so “soft” with so much individual talent on the field, perhaps there is some magic to defensive coordinator Bob Gregory’s madness.

Pac-10 Crown, not NFL draft, topping Lynch’s agenda Contra Costa Times:

On Tuesday at Memorial Stadium, Lynch said he hasn’t decided what his future holds. He remains firm about the task at hand, which is winning the Pac-10 title.

However, certain clues indicate Lynch, the Pac-10’s leading rusher at 109.8 yards per game, will do what everyone expects, enter the NFL draft.

Lynch’s game plan is runnin’, chillin’ Inside Bay Area.

Q. Is it difficult on campus, dispelling the notion that you’re just a jock?

A. Yeah, but I try to get away from that. If you’ve ever seen me outside the stadium, and you didn’t know who I was, you probably wouldn’t think too much of me. You never see me dressed up in my Cal sweats. I always have on street clothes, trying to blend in but just being me, being comfortable with what (clothing) I’m in.

Q. Do you try to converse with non-student athletes?

A. Yeah. People would probably think that because I play football, and I’m all over everything (publicity wise), that I would be hard to approach. After people have a conversation with me, it’s “Ah, he’s cool. I wasn’t expecting him to be like that.” But I’m just me. Solid.

DeCoud out of haze — and studying The Hit San Francisco Chronicle.

Coach Jeff Tedford knew safety Thomas DeCoud was fine by Sunday morning.

“I found him in here watching replays of the hit,” Tedford said. “I think he had to watch it, because he didn’t remember it.”

Cal moves to #8/AP, #9/Coaches, #8/BCS

With the win over UCLA (and losses by Tennessee to LSU and West Virginia to Louisville), Cal has moved up in the polls. All rankings bumped the Bears up 2 spots. The AP has Cal at #8, while the Coaches/Harris polls place Cal at #9, with the difference being Notre Dame placed in front of Cal in these polls. Meanwhile, this boost from the human polls has pushed Cal up 2 spots to #8 in the BCS standings, despite a hit in the computer rankings.

Bowl predictions unanimous: Cal to the Rose

The bowl predictions of the major news media outlets now agree: Cal is headed for the Rose Bowl. The list:

• ESPN
• CBS Sports
• Fox Sports
• Scout’s College Football News

It is great to see confidence from these pundits, but hopefully the team and fans are not setting their sights on Pasadena too soon. There is still a long road to the end of the season.

Cal in bye week favorable in rankings

The bye week was kind to Cal as the Bears moved up in the polls.

With Virginia Tech’s upset of Clemson and greater confidence in Cal due to USC’s loss, the team has moved up to #10 from #12 in the AP poll (leapfrogging overrated Notre Dame in the process) and moving up one slot to #11 from #12 in the Coaches Poll.

In the BCS standings, Cal remains at #10. However, the computer rankings now place the Bears at #3 (1/3 of the calculation) with the strength of schedule of the Bears.

The Daily Cal has a short article with both sides of the argument whether the USC loss was good for Cal. Take a look.

Cal moves into top slot of Pac-10 standings

With USC falling to Oregon State 33-31 today, Cal has emerged as the leader in the Pac-10 conference standings.

USC on our mind

Despite Cal’s road game at USC weeks away, people are talking more than ever about the showdown on November 18 in the Coliseum.

ESPN’s Bruce Feldman: “Most intriguing games remaining”

3. Cal at USC Nov. 18: Jeff Tedford is the only coach in the Pac-10 who has been able to beat Pete Carroll in the last three seasons and this is looking like his best Bear team yet. Meanwhile, this is Carroll’s shakiest Trojan squad in that time. Skepticism about this Trojan team grows each week. Just today, ASU QB Rudy Carpenter called the Trojans the third-best team in the Pac-10, behind Cal and Oregon.

USC’s long home-winning streak has been threatened a lot of late, but the challenge will be whether the Trojans’ suspect secondary can handle all of the Bears’ skill talent? Keep an eye on Cal’s electrifying WR-PR DeSean Jackson. An L.A. native, he was one of the first recruits to snub the Trojans amid USC’s great run.

Washington Head Coach Tyrone Willingham via the SJ Mercury’s Jon Wilner:

“In a game of that nature, I think it’s going to come down to the play of the quarterbacks,” Willingham said, refering to Cal sophomore Nate Longshore and USC junior John David Booty.

“USC has a pretty good duo at running back, and Cal, I think their combo is pretty good and might even be a hair stronger with Marshawn (Lynch). I think the receiving corps from both groups are good and talented, and by that time, USC is probably thinking and wishing (Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith) will be healthy and rolling again.

“If all that comes to pass, it will be an exciting game, and I think it will come down on the quarterbacks.”

ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit:

Q: What do you think Cal’s chances are of beating USC?

A: Currently, the way the two teams are playing, I think Cal has a very good chance of competing with and beating USC. I think for the first 6 or 7 games of the season, despite Cal losing in embarrassing fashion at Tennessee, they’re the better team at this point. And they’ve got not only playmakers on offense, but a defense that is capable of being dominating as well. But fortunately for USC, this game against Cal will not be played for another four games, so they still have time to improve and reach their potential. I keep saying that Cal is better than USC RIGHT NOW, because by the time Nov. 18 rolls around and USC’s youth has a chance to continue to gain experience, they might be a completely different looking team by that point in the season. But if they keep playing the way they have the last four weeks, Cal definitely can beat them.

Tucson Citizen (AZ): “Four huge games coming up this month”

Nov. 18, Cal at USC – The nightcap of a great day of college football, with this one likely deciding the Pac-10 title.

Daily Herald (WA): “Pac-10 bowl scenarios abound”

The Pac-10 championship – and a spot in the Rose Bowl – will come down to the Nov. 18 game between the Trojans and the Golden Bears. Cal is everyone’s favorite, but I’m not convinced. It’s a very good team, but I still give the edge to USC, which I think goes undefeated through the regular season. The young Trojans will continue to get better every week and will be Rose Bowl-bound.

USA Today: “Five games may set stage for college football’s national title”

California at Southern California on Nov. 18, a day featuring two games that could decide the national title matchup. After stumbling badly vs. Tennessee, the No. 11 Golden Bears have looked like the best team in the Pacific-10. A win against the No. 2 Trojans will prove that.

ESPN’s Ivan Maisel (see his bowl predictions with Cal and Michigan in the Rose):

Q: I assume you believe Cal will beat USC … Cal struggled against both Washington schools and its ok (sic), but an unbeaten USC team gets no respect from you. I remember another team that one the NC a few years ago that won alot (sic) of close games, OSU. Is it because USC isn’t blowing people out every week that apparently they aren’t good enough anymore for you?

A: The USC I saw against Arizona State is not a championship team. That’s three straight games that were a struggle. Maybe the bye week will get Jarrett and Smith healthy enough to allow the offense to stretch the field again. But based on what I’ve seen — as of now — I think Cal is better.

ESPN’s Jim Donnan:

Q: Coach do you think Cal is a better team than USC right now? And who has the better receivers this year?

A: Well, I’ve been impressed with the way Cal’s played, after the way they got ambushed by Tennessee. They look like a total football team right now. They’re playing like a better football team right now, but I still think USC will have the edge at home.

Cal still #10 in BCS

The new BCS rankings have been released, and Cal is again ranked #10, still slightly ahead of Tennessee and closer than last week to #9 Notre Dame. Despite a drop in Cal’s averages in both the Harris and Coaches polls, in which they are now ranked 11 and 12 respectively, Cal improved in the computer rankings, moving past Auburn into 5th. In the AP Poll, which is no longer used to calculate the BCS rankings, Cal has also dropped back to #12, leapfrogged by Clemson with their blowout win over Georgia Tech.

Despite win, Cal drops in AP poll; first BCS poll ranks Cal #10

Despite yesterday’s 21-3 win over WSU, Week 8’s polls have Cal gaining votes, but moving down a spot in the AP and staying the same in the Coaches poll. Cal dropped to #11 in the AP this week, as Auburn jumped back up to #8 after their win over Florida. Cal also dropped from #9 to #11 this week in the ESPNU rankings, while FoxSports has ranked Cal #6, one ahead of USC.

Despite dropping in the AP, in the first release of the BCS rankings, Cal is ranked #10, slightly edging out Tennessee. With the AP pulling their poll out of the BCS last year, the new BCS rankings are now based off the Coaches Poll and Harris poll, both of which have Cal ranked at #11, and the computer rankings, which also factor in strength of schedule. With USC ranked at #2, Tennessee at #11, and Oregon at #14, Cal’s computer ranking this week was ranked at 0.760 out of a maximum 1.000, making it #6 in the computer rankings behind USC, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida, and Auburn.